![]() ![]() It refers to an unrealistically favorable attitude that people have towards themselves and people that are close to them. Optimism bias (or unrealistic optimism) is a type of unconscious cognitive bias. Frequently asked questions about optimism bias.Optimism bias makes you underestimate the risk of riding a bike without a helmet.Īlthough optimism bias can motivate us to overcome obstacles, it can also cause us to ignore potential risks, resulting in poor decision-making. ![]() You conclude that you’ll be fine without it. Example: Optimism biasYou’ve just bought a new bike, and the salesperson asks you whether you also want to look for a helmet.īecause you’ve been riding a bike since you were young, you think the chances of getting involved in an accident are really small. Optimism bias causes most people to expect that things will work out well, even if rationality suggests that problems are inevitable in life. Optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate the likelihood of negative events. Try for free What Is Optimism Bias? | Definition & Examples All in all, based on what we know about AI and existential risk, we have more reasons for optimism than pessimism.Eliminate grammar errors and improve your writing with our free AI-powered grammar checker. Their claims that we are all going to hell in a handbasket should be met with healthy skepticism until solid evidence proves otherwise. In short, the burden of proof lies with the doomsayers. While ensuring the ethical and safe development of AI deployment is crucial-and already happening to a significant extent-overly restrictive regulations will hamper the technology's potential to drive economic growth and societal progress. Rather than descending into pandemonium, the innate tendencies of superintelligent AIs may lead to convergence on practices beneficial to humanity. Notwithstanding the attention-grabbing headlines, a deeper dive into the AI doomsday narratives suggests little cause for concern. Unsupported claims of potential dangers, especially sensational ones, require substantiation before gaining credibility. However, the burden of proof works in the opposite direction. So the question arises: why create unnecessary new bureaucratic structures and licensing regimes if the little we know so far about AI development provides so little reason to worry about existential threats? According to Eliezer Yudkowsky, the onus is on those who are skeptical of AI posing existential risk to disprove his theory. While this scenario might not sit well with communists and socialists, for those of us who appreciate the benefits of markets, production, and businesses competing to satisfy consumer demands, superintelligent AIs could well be a catalyst for economic growth rather than a harbinger of the apocalypse. Thus, even if superintelligent AIs aspire to acquire as many resources as they can, so long as they operate within legal boundaries (modifiable by humans as circumstances require) and aim to satisfy consumer and investor demands, their operation might largely parallel traditional business activities in a market. Already, we're witnessing significant competition in the AI space, and there is little reason to think this won’t continue. However, apart from a few exceptions, competition has largely dominated over monopoly in capitalist economies. While his concerns merit attention, it's essential to contextualize them against what we actually know about AI and existential risks, as opposed to what is mere speculation.Ĭapitalism has long faced criticism about a general tendency toward monopolization, so maybe the real concern here is monopoly. Although he championed the merits of AI and the great benefits it can provide to humanity, Altman also vocalized his fears that the technology industry could “cause significant harm to the world,” even going as far as endorsing a new federal agency to regulate AI and calling for licensing of advanced AI firms. In response to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's recent Congressional testimony, a heightened national conversation is taking place surrounding the potential existential risks stemming from artificial intelligence. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky) Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. Trust Officer Christina Montgomery are sworn in before testifying at a Senate Judiciary Subcommittee hearing on artificial intelligence. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, NYU Professor Emeritus Gary Marcus, and IBM Chief Privacy and. ![]()
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